What cost Kamala the White House?

19/12/2024

Mia Kane explores what went wrong for the Democrats, and the factors contributing to Harris’ massive election defeat. 

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By Mia Kane

The Harris campaign began optimistically, receiving over $80 billion small dollar donations in its first 24 hours and drumming up hope for the more youthful democratic candidate after President Biden’s withdrawal. However, after a disastrous loss to President Elect Donald Trump, the democratic ‘blame game’ has officially begun. So, just where did Kamala Harris fail to win over the American electorate?

Joe Biden

Spectators both within and external to the party have concurred that Biden’s stepping down from the race came too late. Trump gained a head start in his campaign that Harris simply could not catch up to. Her opponent, who had been effectively campaigning since November 2022, was able to rebuild a strong relationship with voters by playing on his record in office. Meanwhile, Harris failed to detach herself from the vast unpopularity of the Biden administration – a connection that Trump highlighted in September’s presidential debate and throughout the race. Early campaign embarrassment from an obstinate Joe Biden, confusing Volodymyr Zelensky with Russian president Vladimir Putin, stumbling over his words in the first presidential debate with Trump and falling over on multiple occasions earned the 81-year-old the epithet “sleepy Joe.” The humiliation of such blunders has been catastrophic not just for his own public image, but that too of his party and hopeful successor. Ultimately, American’s could not ignore Harris and Biden’s close relation – one that has no doubt played a consequential role in such a disastrous electoral defeat.

The War on Gaza and Left-wing boycotts

Traditionally, Democrats have marketed themselves as the ‘progressive’ vote where human rights are concerned. However, for many this reputation was undone by the promise that Biden’s “ironclad support for Israel” would continue under a Harris administration.

Many democrats have been quick to pin blame on left-wing voters, who abstained or voted Green, for such a disastrous election defeat. However, the impact of independent green party candidate Jill Stein (who positioned herself as the vote for Gaza) has been greatly overstated. Stein achieved just 0.05 percent of the national share - even if all these ballots were transferred to Harris, it would still be not enough to defeat Trump. Arab voters have defended their decision to vote against democrats, denouncing Harris’ reaction to pro-Palestinian demonstrators as harsh, and demeaning . After shutting down a protester back in August, simply stating “I’m speaking now,” Arab and Muslim voters have voiced discontentment with Harris’ stance toward Israel’s war on Gaza.

Additionally, Harris’ rebranding of herself as a gun owning, tough on immigration, soft-core republican in a bid to win over swing voters only further alienated left-wing voters from the party.

Tim Walz was hailed by observers as a smart vice-presidential pick for Harris to win back left-wing confidence. His track record on education, labour rights and health care has been decisively liberal, whilst remaining a steadfast defender of the second amendment. In theory, Walz should have bridged the gap between two very different voter demographics, and reassured left-leaning voters that their interests were still heard. Ultimately, this was not achieved. Traditional Republican demographics remained faithful to Trump, whilst left-wing voters remained disillusioned with the Democratic party.

"The economy, stupid"

Voters placed onus on the state of the economy as one of the most pivotal issues on the ballot – a fact that the Harris campaign either failed to anticipate, or to sufficiently act upon. 45 percent of exit poll voters saw themselves as worse off under the Biden administration than four years prior. Harris has faced criticism from opponents for failing to centre fiscal policy and the cost-of-living crisis in her campaign, whilst opponent Donald Trump made it a centrepiece. Voters voiced their doubt concerning her financial responsibility, whilst Trump was viewed as the favourable candidate to handle the economy. Additionally, large-scale disillusionment with democratic incumbent Biden’s fiscal responsibility has arisen since 2020. Ultimately, Americans felt that Harris could not reassure them with a distinctive economic plan targeted at lower rocketing inflation. Voters too could not feel reassured that a Harris administration would bring about any more change than Biden’s. This gave Trump the chance to monopolise on the current state of economic affairs, and encourage voters to “dream big, again!” by ousting Democrats from the oval office.

Over-reliance on abortion rights

The Harris campaign centralised women’s reproductive rights in an effort to mobilise female voters. Reminding women of Trump’s record in office on abortion and playing on fears that a second Trump administration would implement far-right policies laid out in the Project 2025 document, Harris hinged appeals to female voters based on these concerns. However, abortion did not even break into the top five voter priorities according to Pew Research Center data. Women have typically leaned towards democratic candidates – and while Harris maintained this edge, female support fell by seven points compared to 2020. In the end, the white female vote (which has tilted toward Trump for the past three elections he contested) was underestimated.

Immigration and the Latino vote

This election, Trump enjoyed a 12-point lead in the Latino male vote. This seems paradoxical given Trump’s track record on immigration and his use of derogatory language against Hispanic immigrants. Whilst Harris did achieve over 50 percent of the Latino vote, she suffered considerable losses from the 60 percent that voted for Biden in 2020. Democrats were unable to anticipate Latino support for Trump and the surprisingly strong support for tough immigration from this demographic. Harris’ promises to be on tough immigration failed to overcome Trump’s track record of hard-line border security. According to many Latinos, their vote also came down to the price of healthcare, housing and everyday essentials. So, while confidence in Republicans may have been rocked following the derogatory comments guest comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made at a New York rally (wherein Puerto Rico was likened to a "floating island of garbage"), everyday issues and struggles took precedence for Latino voters. And Harris failed to prove herself the candidate capable of tackling their struggles.

The take-away

Despite pre-election polling predicting an extremely close race between the two candidates, the outcome of the election saw Trump seize an unexpectedly large victory. Due to the factors listed, the challenges facing Harris proved insurmountable, as the democrats were unable to win over a single swing state, and suffered substantial damage to the “blue wall.” The question that now must be asked - where does the party go from here?

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